Hit frequency sounds like the chance of coming out ahead on a spin. It is not. It counts any spin that pays anything at all, including a payout smaller than the stake that went in. This post defines the term, separates it from RTP, and works through an invented slot to show how a game can hit often while most of its hits are net losses. Every number in the example is made up for the arithmetic. None of it describes Brasslight Slots or any other real game, and the Play listing for that app states no hit frequency, RTP or pay table.
Two numbers, two questions
Hit frequency is the share of spins that pay something. If a slot pays on 30 spins in 100, its hit frequency is 30%.
RTP, return to player, is total paid divided by total staked over a very long run. It says how much comes back per unit staked. The companion post on RTP and volatility shows three slots with the same 96% RTP and very different hit rates.
The two numbers answer different questions. Hit frequency is about how often a spin pays; RTP is about how much comes back. Neither tells you how often a hit is bigger than the stake, and that is the figure people usually have in mind.
A toy slot, clearly invented
Take a hypothetical slot with a stake of 1 unit per spin and the pay outcomes below. These figures were chosen to make the sums clean. They are not taken from Brasslight Slots or from any real pay table. The count column is the expected number of spins, out of every 1,000, that land on each payout.
| Payout | Spins per 1,000 | Units returned | Net per spin |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 (no pay) | 564 | 0 | −1 |
| 0.2 units | 150 | 30 | −0.8 |
| 0.5 units | 100 | 50 | −0.5 |
| 1 unit | 50 | 50 | 0 |
| 2 units | 60 | 120 | +1 |
| 5 units | 50 | 250 | +4 |
| 10 units | 20 | 200 | +9 |
| 25 units | 2 | 50 | +24 |
| 50 units | 4 | 200 | +49 |
The spins add up to 1,000: 564 + 150 + 100 + 50 + 60 + 50 + 20 + 2 + 4. The units returned add up to 30 + 50 + 50 + 120 + 250 + 200 + 50 + 200 = 950.
Working out both numbers
Hit frequency. Every row except the first pays something, so the paying spins are 1,000 − 564 = 436. The hit frequency is 436 ÷ 1,000 = 43.6%, more than four spins in ten.
RTP. The slot returns 950 units for 1,000 staked, so its RTP is 950 ÷ 1,000 = 95%. The expected net over 1,000 spins is −50 units, or −0.05 per spin.
Now split the 436 hits by size:
- Below the stake: the 0.2 and 0.5 rows, 150 + 100 = 250 spins. Each returns less than the 1 unit staked, so each is a net loss that still counts as a hit.
- Exactly the stake: 50 spins. The stake comes back and nothing more.
- Above the stake: 60 + 50 + 20 + 2 + 4 = 136 spins, which is 13.6% of all spins.
So 250 of the 436 hits, 57.3%, pay less than the bet. Add the 50 break-even spins and 300 of the 436, or 68.8%, leave you no better off. Only 136 of 436, or 31.2%, leave you ahead.
Where the return comes from
The small hits barely contribute to the return. The 250 below-stake spins return 30 + 50 = 80 units, which is 8.4% of the 950 returned. The 136 above-stake spins return 120 + 250 + 200 + 50 + 200 = 820 units, which is 86.3%. The remaining 50 units are the break-even spins.
The top three rows, the 10, 25 and 50 unit payouts, come from just 26 spins in 1,000 and carry 450 of the 950 units. That is 47.4% of the return from 2.6% of spins. The return leans heavily on rare, large payouts.
A hit means "paid something". It does not mean "paid more than the stake". In the invented slot, 43.6% of spins are hits and 13.6% are wins in the sense of finishing ahead.
Why a win screen can mislead
Many slots show an animation, a sound or a counter for any payout, including one below the stake. The screen reads as a win while the balance has still gone down. Comparing the payout with the stake, not the animation, tells you which kind of hit you just had.
Reading a hit rate when you see one
- Ask what counts as a hit. Some sources count any payout, some only payouts above the stake. The figures are not comparable until you know which.
- A higher hit frequency is not a higher RTP. Our toy slot hits on 43.6% of spins and returns 95%. Another could hit on 10% and return 96%.
- Hit frequency says little about streaks. It is an average, and each spin is independent. See why a slot is never due for why a long gap does not change the next spin.
- Features add their own rates. A bonus has its own chance of arriving, as in the scatter odds example.
A real game has many more outcomes than eight rows, with wilds and a ways count such as the one in what 243 ways to win means. The method is the same: list the outcomes, count them, then compare each payout with the stake.
Brasslight Slots: Casino Games is a cat-themed 5-reel slot with 243 ways to win, a Yarn Pick bonus, a daily prize wheel and Turbo and Auto spin. It uses virtual coins only, there is no real money in it, and coins and gems have no cash value.