Betting with the count: how a true-count bet ramp works
A bet ramp ties bet size to the Hi-Lo true count. With each +1 worth about 0.5% and a 0.5% house edge, break-even is near +1. A 1 to 8 unit ramp, worked.
Deck penetration: why a count needs cards dealt
Penetration is how much of the shoe is dealt before the shuffle. The same Hi-Lo running count of +4 is a true count of +0.9 at 25% dealt and +4 at 83%.
Stiff hands against a 2 to 6: why you stand on 13 to 16
Against a dealer 2 to 6, basic strategy stands on hard 13 to 16. The dealer busts 35.4% to 42.3% of hands and hitting loses more. Plus the hard 12 exception.
Small pairs: when to split twos, threes, fours and sixes
Twos and threes split against a dealer 2 to 7, sixes against 2 to 6, fours only against 5 and 6 when doubling after a split is allowed. Here is why, and what changes without it.
Doubling 9, 10 and 11: the hard totals worth doubling
Basic strategy doubles hard 9 against a 3 to 6, hard 10 against a 2 to 9 and hard 11 against a 2 to 10. Here is why each line sits where it does.
The Illustrious 18: count-based plays worth learning first
The Illustrious 18 are the Hi-Lo plays where the true count changes basic strategy: insurance at +3, 16 against 10 at 0, 15 against 10 at +4, and 15 more.
Never split tens: why a 20 beats two fresh hands
A pair of tens is a 20, and a 20 wins 76% to 86% of the time against a dealer 2 to 9. Splitting it trades that for two hands that are worth far less.
Splitting nines: why you stand on 18 against a 7
A pair of nines splits against most dealer cards but stands against a 7. The dealer's final totals show why: 18 beats a 17, and a 7 makes 17 most often.
Doubling soft hands: ace-two to ace-seven explained
Soft hands from ace-two to ace-seven double only against a weak dealer card. Here is the six-deck chart and the reason each cell is what it is.
Hard 16 against a dealer 10: why hitting is the lesser evil
Hard 16 against a dealer 10 loses about 54 bets in 100 whether you stand or hit. Surrender, at 50, is cheaper still. Here is the working.
Hard 12 against a 2 or 3: why basic strategy says hit
Standing on 12 against a dealer 2 or 3 feels safe, but basic strategy hits it. Here is the 30.8% bust risk, the dealer's bust rates and why 4, 5 and 6 differ.
Late surrender: the hands worth giving up on
Late surrender hands back half your bet. Basic strategy uses it on hard 16 against 9, 10 and ace, and on hard 15 against 10, because those lose more than half.
Insurance: why it loses unless you are counting
Insurance pays 2:1, so it breaks even only when tens make up one third of the unseen cards. A fresh shoe sits near 31%; a Hi-Lo true count of about +3 reaches it.
Soft 18: how to play ace-seven against every dealer card
Ace-seven is the one hand that stands, doubles and hits depending on the dealer's card. Here is the full six-deck chart and the numbers behind each choice.
Hi-Lo counting: running count and true count explained
Hi-Lo gives every card +1, 0 or −1. The running count tracks what has gone; dividing by decks left turns it into a true count you can compare.